Tuesday, November 08, 2005

The rig wig

The current post-election drama in Azerbaijan is similar to what happened after its 2003 presidential polls --rigged elections, denials and brokered statements.

The ruling party in Azerbaijan claimed victory on Sunday, with opposition parties saying the elections were rigged. The U.S. issued a statement saying the elections were partly rigged, with Russia saying it was legit, as I said they would do.

So the big question is -- what happens from here? Perhaps nothing.

The opposition is trying to create a scenario that Ukraine saw in 2002 -- the "Orange Revolution," which saw unhappy Ukrainians ousting elitist and ex-communist leader Leonid Kuchma.

But for a revolution, you need the people to participate. Unlike the Ukrainians, the Azeris don't want it. Ukrainians were desperate for a change -- Kuchma had exploited them as much as he could, and in Viktor Yushchenko, the new leader, people saw hope.

Azeris are happy with current president Ilham Aliyev, and people don't see a leader like Yushchenko to oppose him.

The U.S., being the U.S. and the preserver of democracy, we had to issue a statement saying that Azerbaijan's elections were partly rigged. But the U.S. won't push or support a revolution, like it did in Ukraine, because its current economic relationship with Azerbaijan is just at the right level.

The happy Russians praised the elections -- they perhaps don't know what's right anyways, being the world champ in rigged elections. It went to the extent to say that all elections are rigged, and the same applies to Azerbaijan, and its legitimacy cannot be questioned.

Some poll recounts have been issued and results nullified, but with the public happy and unwilling to help the opposition, the current drama is fire without any smoke. It should last a few days and then dry out.


Anonymous olivia said...

the azeris are not necessarily all that happy with aliyev, or not from what i heard when i was there. a lot of people were really unhappy, actually. i think, though, that the options were not that good, and possibly there had been too much violence in previous protests for people to want to do it again so soon.

12:49 PM  
Blogger Khakra said...

you may have a point. of course, its always hard to get a perfect birds eye view sitting here, but the moscow folks are assuming that as a basis behind their reports. one thing that passes my mind, as reported by some outlets -- is america happy with its relationship with azerbaijan so as not to push the azeris to revolt?

3:06 PM  
Blogger venus said...

when people themselves don't want the change, how can the outside world help/support any such movement? My be they deserve it then. yeah, Indians sure are lucky that they did not fell in the same line as USSR back theninspite of nehru's soft corner for leftists

6:16 PM  

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