Imbalance is Russia's fine balance

How effective is the UN? It took a month to broker the Lebanon-Israel deal, after hundreds died. On the flip side, without the UN, a deal would have been impossible. The bloated UN juices resources, but it has anamazing micro-level success rate where political agenda doesn't rule.

On a macro level, it's a different and exciting affair for the UN, like the Georgia-Russia bouts. After a long silence, their dormant UN sparring affair is back.

Georgia recently arrested four Russian soldiers, accused of being spies. These were army officers, not just enlisted men, so Russia raised a stink in the UN. Russia also staged an overdramatic evacuation of its embassy personnel in Tbilisi, Georgia's capital.

Russia either does it or overdoes it. There's never a fine balance. That also applies in the larger context of the decade-old Georgia-Russia conflict, which has killed millions. The arrests are tied to the conflict.

Georgia wants the UN to stop Russia from supporting rebels in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, regions seeking independence from Georgia. Russia's response? Georgia can't handle its own regions, so the UN should vote to grant Abkhazia and South Ossetia independence. I chronicled the Abkhazia conflict in an earlier entry.

Russia's vision of the ground reality could be true. Georgia's treatment of Abkhaz and Ossetians was and is pathetic, which is why locals rebeled. Georgia is now loading up on arms to fight the rebels.

Russia is alarmed by Georgia's arms race over the rebel threat, as it doesn't want another conflict spilling into its borders (let's say they don't want another Chechnya). We're big, so let's be the peacemakers, Russia thinks.

If a conflict starts, Russia will be forced to send its army as peacekeepers (which has happened before). The peacekeepers will help the rebels break away from Georgia. It will bring regional stability and Russia can close the door on this issue.

Georgia seems right in contending that Russia is meddling with its internal affairs. The rebels are receiving some help, and the KGB still bug washing machines. But having an embassy evacuated is a poor reason to waste eardrum space in the UN.

It's hard to judge who's right and who isn't because of the imbalance. Beyond the political chess, the ground reality seems somewhat different. The Russians and Georgians seem eager to cooperate.

(to be continued...)